November 2018 - On the 1st I sent Graviilean a note asking for an update. As of the 4th it was read without reply. I sent another note on the 5th asking for a refund. Graviilean replied and I pushed for a specific refund date. Nov 6, graviilean messaged me about the PSA.
UPDATE November 10, 2018 - This is a pretty massive update but thank you to all the people who helped me find this information and provided translations on things as we went. I have not included everything given to me, so if you don't see something you gave me and really want it included, let me know. This is...an extremely long update. I'm so sorry.
I will continue posting new evidence in the appropriate folders! If there's a new update that mentions status updates or posts, check the Status updates folder, if it mentions spending it will be in spending update, etc.
A brief recap of Graviilean's status posts: in June, July and August she was asking for help to raise 300, 400, 500, 500, and other amounts of money in various posts, including Emergency Commissions, customs and regular comms.
About the actual ART update. A few people brought my attention to Graviilean's alt account Graviinator on DA. This seems to be her RP account. During the times she was asking for people to commission her, she was also posting a fair amount of art there. Going through previous commissions in the July journal, it seems that she stopped providing completed work around July 3rd. The last sketch provided publically was July 26. Graviinator posted a fullbody personal drawing on July 30th, and then in August she posted 2 full body characters and 3 'fake screenshots'. While not INCREDIBLY active, it's still far more than we have seen in Commissions between July and August.
In September, Graviinator posted several sketches, two full body drawings, two outfit designs with different layouts (I believe they are collabs so it's possible not much time was put into them??), and opened commissions for the fake screenshots. On her Facebook, Graviilean posted several fake screenshots (one was done in May 2017 so I cannot tell if the others were done around the same time, but 3 of them are from August of 2018) and some new adopt sketches.
October 1-6 she posted 6 Inktober drawings and 1 full body. On her facebook, she posted 3 Inktober projects with 3 photos each. From the DA account, we can see that Poketober lasted until the 6th but I can't tell if Witchtober or the 3rd project went farther than 3 days.
Now on to a spending update. Moving back to the months she was desperately taking commissions, I've found that she has spent a fair amount on her Lolita fashion and going out to events, conventions, and other luxury items. Normally I would not judge someone for their spending habits, however this was during many of the times she was posting that she needed to take more commissions to refund old commissions, and desperately trying to earn money to move, etc. Essentially, while making her customers wait on refunds, she was purchasing extravagant items for herself.
In June, she posted that she needed $400 to refund and pay for some stuff - but there's a reason I bring it up again. On September 4, she posted a photo of a new Lolita dress, along with the photos from the website. After a bit of research, I found the dress is custom tailored to the buyers measurements and starts out at a base price of $260 - price goes up depending on measurements. And that's not including the matching accessories. But, as it's custom made, it has a process time of 3-4 months before being shipped (shipping can take anywhere from 2 days express mail to 2-3 weeks air mail). This means that the dress was very likely ordered in June, although not concrete and it's possible it was from earlier (or later).
July 10 she asked to raise $150, July 30th another $300. Again I bring this up for a reason - on August 8th, Gravii posted photos of 5 new Lolita outfits (complete with accoutrements and shoes!). These seem to be fairly average dresses, not custom tailored to measurements - I say that because each dress looks a little different on her so they appear more "store bought" than the tailored one. Even assuming that each dress was only $100 and each pair of shoes was $30 (not including the gloves, kerchiefs, and other accessories which must be purchased separately) that's over $600 in apparel. I went with $100 because that's the cheapest price I could find Lolita fashion dresses - but keep in mind the ones for $100 are typically the Halloween costume looking ones and are not high quality, and the dresses in her photos appear to be higher quality, so realistically their prices start at 150-200. And Lolita fashion shoes range in price from 30 to 100+ as well.
Even if we roll back the time frame for ordering this shipment to the end of June, she was asking for $400 then, as well. Please remember she was STILL claiming to have no money to refund her owed orders, and opening commissions to cover the cost of refunding old orders.
August 8 she received a loot crate for stationary and cutesy things - a small monthly fee, but when you have no money to even refund pending commissions, why would you subscribe to a new monthly bill?
August 29 she shared a snap of her online shopping cart total - $364, captioned "Why am I like this". There's no indication if she actually bought it or not, though. Some friends commented telling her not to, and she replied something along the lines of maybe she shouldn't.
September 10 she posted a snap of an upcoming event reminder for a Lolita fashion tea party. I looked at the tea party and found the event took place on September 15th and entry was 70 dollars (approximate USD value, the Spanish version said S/110 which is local currency). As a quick recap of her status posts, in June and July she was asking for help to raise $400 and $300, and on August 22 - 23 she was asking for help to raise $500 urgently so she could move out. She said she needed $20 on August 28 to reach her goal. Somehow on September 3 she needed $300 more to reach her goal.
Back to the Tea Party, the entry info says that not only is it a lovely place to show off your lolita fashion and meet some (famous??) lolita fashion folk, it's also a place to buy exclusive lolita fashion and merchandise. There's no indication that she bought anything there, at least not from the photos I can access. But typically people going to an event marketed as a place to buy things they can't get elsewhere, they take money to splurge. Anime conventions, sports expos, etc.
On October 7 (The same day as her Some Updates journal about how she needed time to refund due to having no money, and needed to earn 2k for a tablet...) she posted a photo of another new Lolita dress with the caption "What a sweet welcome home, should I wear it to vote?"
October 12 she received her Tokyo Treat loot crate - again another monthly cost that took priority over refunding a commission.
My overall conclusion at the end of this is.... it's not that she has no money to refund, she's making the decision NOT to refund so she can continue purchasing her Lolita fashion and loot boxes, and going out to various locales.
December 19 and 20
I hadn't posted this before, but Graviilean's friend (my primary/only contact with Graviilean from early/mid November to early December) told me she is planning to change her DA and focus on using FA after all this is settled.
With the threat of suicide (see update and note above), I'm not certain if I believe that she isn't just trying to quit DA now and move to a new account to start over. This would have the net effect of blanking out her owed work and get people to stop expecting a reply. That might be low of me to even consider, I don't know at this point. All I know is every time I ask or push for an update, I get empty promises of "Soon" "By the end of the month" and "Next week". And all the notes I have from people asking for refunds, they have shown me that Graviilean stops mentioning deadlines and simply says she doesn't have money to refund, and tells them to wait. No rough estimates, no deadlines, just asks them to wait.
I truly hope Graviilean doesn't do anything dangerous, and I hope that if she is serious that she gets real help.