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Mesoscale Discussion 1843 (page 1 of 1)

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...extreme northeast New
Mexico...western Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 051844Z - 052115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, with 65+ kt gusts and up to 3-4 inch diameter hail possible. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed when an uptick in convective coverage and intensity are noted.

DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies are in place, with surface temperatures exceeding 80 F amid low 60s F dewpoints. A plume of 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates are overspreading this warming/moistening boundary layer, contributing to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. 45+ kts of 500 mb westerly winds atop weak southerly low-level flow supports 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. The aforementioned combination of buoyancy and shear will support supercells as the initial convective mode. Given the deep-layer of steep lapse rates/high CAPE density profiles, elongated h

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